Key Takeaway:
- GLP-1 use surged more than 140% from 2022 to 2024, while bariatric surgery volumes fell 34.1%.
- Obesity drugs now make up about 25% of the late-stage pharmaceutical pipeline, surpassing oncology.
- GLP-1s are reshaping health care, shifting investment toward obesity medicine, cardiometabolic care and specialty pharmacy.
GLP-1 weight-loss drugs are reshaping U.S. health care as use surges, obesity surgeries decline, and pharmaceutical investment shifts toward obesity treatments, a Wells Fargo report says.
GLP-1 use rises as bariatric surgery falls
Use of GLP-1 drugs increased more than 140% from 2022 to 2024, while bariatric surgery volumes fell 34.1%, according to the Wells Fargo report released Thursday. The shift is changing how hospitals and other providers manage obesity.
The report says 40.3% of U.S. adults are considered obese, and 9.4% are severely obese, making obesity a major driver of health care demand.
“GLP-1s may be marketed as weight-loss drugs, but they’re rapidly becoming one of the most disruptive economic forces in healthcare,” John Teasley, market executive for Wells Fargo Healthcare Banking, told Fox Business.
Teasley said the drugs could affect how providers generate revenue, where investors put capital, and how consumers manage their health.
The report says patients who previously may have undergone bariatric surgery after unsuccessful dieting now have a pharmaceutical option that is increasingly accepted and can be stopped.
Obesity drugs could reduce demand for procedures
The impact could extend beyond weight management. A trial cited in the report found GLP-1 treatment reduced major cardiovascular events by 20% among overweight or obese adults without diabetes.
If those results translate to widespread use, hospitals could see lower demand for some procedures, repeat admissions and complications associated with obesity, the report says.
Health care providers may instead see more demand for outpatient visits, long-term obesity management, side-effect monitoring and medication management.
The changes could also affect treatments for conditions associated with obesity, including knee and hip replacements, sleep apnea and metabolic liver disease.
“The biggest takeaway from our research isn’t that healthcare is shrinking; it’s that healthcare is being rewired,” Teasley said.
That shift could force hospitals to reconsider investments and staffing as some traditional obesity-related services face weaker demand while medication-based care expands.
Pharmaceutical investment shifts toward obesity
The rise of GLP-1 treatments is also changing pharmaceutical research and development. Wells Fargo cited a Deloitte analysis showing obesity drugs have become the largest share of the late-stage pharmaceutical pipeline, surpassing oncology for the first time in 16 years.
Obesity treatments represented about 25% of the late-stage pipeline, up from 1% in 2022. Oncology’s share fell to 20% from 32% during the same period, according to the report.
GLP-1 drugs account for most of the increase in obesity treatments, the report says, reflecting growing expectations for the drug class.
“Obesity therapies have already taken cancer as the pharmaceutical industry’s leading area of investment,” Teasley said, adding that the treatments could improve health outcomes for millions while reshaping the health care industry.
Wells Fargo says companies positioned to benefit from the shift will likely move resources toward obesity medicine, integrated cardiometabolic care and specialty pharmacy services rather than trying to preserve the traditional health care model.
